发表时间：2020-01-18 00:30:52 浏览量：450844?Source: this week, the yields of 21-year treasury bonds and CDB bonds rose for three consecutive days. The active bonds of treasury bonds rose 4.5bp again on Wednesday, and the active bonds of CDB rose 5bp. How to look at the future market? In the future, there are two changes worthy of attention: first, pay attention to the sustainability of commodity price rise and its impact on China's nominal economic variables; second, pay attention to the marginal change of monetary policy when the "routine" reduction is not yet reached. In the short term, neither the stabilisation of commodity prices nor the fine-tuning of monetary policy can be identified as a trend change. We maintain the view that the second quarter of the 21st year national open active bonds fluctuated between 3.5-3.2. The second quarter is a stage内蒙古快3玩法投注技巧 of gradually clear understanding of the economic situation. In the short term, we may see a good economic data affected by the dislocation, but its sustainability is questionable. The real break of bond market needs to wait until the real estate or overseas economy changes, and pay attention to the fall in sales of the third and fourth tier real estate and the subsequent evolution of the US economy. These two points may not be clear until the second half of the year. For this adjustment, if the number of national open active bonds exceeds 3.2 in 21 years, the allocation value will appear. At present, bond market investors have sufficient expectations for short-term economic stability and non-compliance in April. If the follow-up social finance data are not as expected, it may lead to a rapid decline in long-term yield. Risk tip: economic fundamentals have changed beyond expectations. In March, both the official PMI and Caixin PMI exceeded market expectations, and the economic data in March and the first quarter may also significantly exceed market expectations.